“ I don’t really understand math. I made a commitment from the start that I’d never put a chart or graph on Unpopular Front: ...the governing ideology here is fundamentalist humanism governed by Auden’s commandments: “Thou shalt not sit With statisticians nor commit A social science.””
John, only the dead have seen the end of statisticians.
At the risk of bringing social science into these hallowed halls, I do wonder if we won't see more red and purple states engaging in primary/electoral reform. There are ways to quietly make it harder for MAGA candidates to win with the support of only a large minority of GOP primary voters, frame it as simply a generic electoral reform (maybe even calling it a "stop the steal" measure) without openly saying you're breaking from Trump and the MAGA wing. I notice that Nevada has an electoral reform on the ballot this time around too.
Great piece although I feel it is overly sanguine about DeSantis' broader appeal, and indeed his program itself, which is in many ways indistinguishable from that which Trump's handpicked candidates had proposed. Worst case scenario is that Trump's weakness represents the beginning of republican elites' attempt to refine their authoritarian tactics, potentially with success. Call it, the Compactization of the republican strategy.
As I am by no means the first to note, Trumpism did not arrive ex nihilo. The reactionary-authoritarian-fascist impulse in the GOP runs deep. Neither have the issues with globalization and neo-liberalism suddenly evaporated. That said, I do think that Trump represents singular threat, and things look less than rosy for him at present. Desantis is horrible, to be sure, but he is also a creature of politics and party and thus more (I suspect) responsive than Trump to the demands of each. That may make him more appealing to some voters and less appealing to others. But I also think (hope) that the immediate future for the Republican Party is a period of mutual recrimination and (fingers crossed) paralysis. And if the Dems can at least hang on to the Senate, that assures more Biden appointments to the courts.
Re DeSantis, some wag on Twitter said something like “Anyone looking at this election and concluding the US wants to be more like Florida has brain damage.”
DeSantis enthusiasm reminds me very much of the small boomlet there was for Cory Booker. He's got policies people in the party like, good bio, but just a bit of an uncanny valley effect with the person he's always going to be compared to. We'll see how it plays out because I'm sure DeSantis is going to pick up support from moderate elites as the figure who can let them continue to act like the Republican Party is a typical and mainstream institution and the center still holds.
Do you feel that this lends credence to Ross Douthat's analysis that Trumpism is basically a virtual politics that lets people play fascism at home and online, but that ultimately not fails at mass mobilization, but doesn't even try? And, as you pointed out on the episode of Unclear and Present Danger when the War in Ukraine started, isn't that a constituitve aspect of right-wing natonalisms?
Option 1: The Republican party's demise. I don't know. The Republican party survived Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression, it will survive Trump. Republican voters aren't going anywhere.
Option 2: Trump's demise. My skepticism is that we've seen Trump "undone" so many times ("grab 'em by the pussy," the 2018 midterms, Impeachment I, mishandling the pandemic, January 6, Impeachment II) that predicting his demise is like betting against the tides at this point.
To quote another cliche, something has to give . . .
“ I don’t really understand math. I made a commitment from the start that I’d never put a chart or graph on Unpopular Front: ...the governing ideology here is fundamentalist humanism governed by Auden’s commandments: “Thou shalt not sit With statisticians nor commit A social science.””
John, only the dead have seen the end of statisticians.
At the risk of bringing social science into these hallowed halls, I do wonder if we won't see more red and purple states engaging in primary/electoral reform. There are ways to quietly make it harder for MAGA candidates to win with the support of only a large minority of GOP primary voters, frame it as simply a generic electoral reform (maybe even calling it a "stop the steal" measure) without openly saying you're breaking from Trump and the MAGA wing. I notice that Nevada has an electoral reform on the ballot this time around too.
Great piece although I feel it is overly sanguine about DeSantis' broader appeal, and indeed his program itself, which is in many ways indistinguishable from that which Trump's handpicked candidates had proposed. Worst case scenario is that Trump's weakness represents the beginning of republican elites' attempt to refine their authoritarian tactics, potentially with success. Call it, the Compactization of the republican strategy.
As I am by no means the first to note, Trumpism did not arrive ex nihilo. The reactionary-authoritarian-fascist impulse in the GOP runs deep. Neither have the issues with globalization and neo-liberalism suddenly evaporated. That said, I do think that Trump represents singular threat, and things look less than rosy for him at present. Desantis is horrible, to be sure, but he is also a creature of politics and party and thus more (I suspect) responsive than Trump to the demands of each. That may make him more appealing to some voters and less appealing to others. But I also think (hope) that the immediate future for the Republican Party is a period of mutual recrimination and (fingers crossed) paralysis. And if the Dems can at least hang on to the Senate, that assures more Biden appointments to the courts.
Re DeSantis, some wag on Twitter said something like “Anyone looking at this election and concluding the US wants to be more like Florida has brain damage.”
Onward
DeSantis enthusiasm reminds me very much of the small boomlet there was for Cory Booker. He's got policies people in the party like, good bio, but just a bit of an uncanny valley effect with the person he's always going to be compared to. We'll see how it plays out because I'm sure DeSantis is going to pick up support from moderate elites as the figure who can let them continue to act like the Republican Party is a typical and mainstream institution and the center still holds.
Do you feel that this lends credence to Ross Douthat's analysis that Trumpism is basically a virtual politics that lets people play fascism at home and online, but that ultimately not fails at mass mobilization, but doesn't even try? And, as you pointed out on the episode of Unclear and Present Danger when the War in Ukraine started, isn't that a constituitve aspect of right-wing natonalisms?
Option 1: The Republican party's demise. I don't know. The Republican party survived Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression, it will survive Trump. Republican voters aren't going anywhere.
Option 2: Trump's demise. My skepticism is that we've seen Trump "undone" so many times ("grab 'em by the pussy," the 2018 midterms, Impeachment I, mishandling the pandemic, January 6, Impeachment II) that predicting his demise is like betting against the tides at this point.
To quote another cliche, something has to give . . .
>Chaos is part of the appeal. And you know what? I kinda get it now: I too now want to see what kind of havoc he can wreak.
This was how it felt at first for us. At the end of the day, may not be wrong.