Thank-you for the basic point: the very vastness in time and space that all-but-guaranties that there is other intelligent life out there also makes extremely unlikely that any of it could show-up here within the life-time of our civilisation or, likely, race. It won't help much, because:
People say they can distinguish [science] fantasy from reality, but what on the Serengeti or for hundreds of thousands of years afterward selected for not believing our eyes and ears and minds?
Charles Stross once unleashed a storm of criticism when he used simple physics and economics to demonstrate that large-scale space-colonisation were unlikely as a viable proposition. The replies were all over the place, but notable were incorrect calculations contradicting his, and 'What about The Human Spirit!?' ironically coming from people thinking of themselves as 'hard science-fiction'* fans… but I could swear that the underlying objection was 'But I'ʼve seen it done hundreds or thousands of times! '. That is to say, they' ve been reading about it happening or its having happened in a future's past, and/or seen films and television where &c., for _decades_.
*That is, s.f. that ostensibly cares about real, physical, laws…but has accumulated various tropes having nothing to do with those or contradicting them: to my jaundiced eye it might be better called 'butch science-fiction'.
>> If there was something that could make quick work of these distances and the physical constraints of faster-than-light travel, it would not be our imagined alien in a flying saucer, it would be more like an angel or some other supernatural being. We have to remember that our imaginations are conditioned by our own cultural productions: we see flying saucers or spacecraft, because that’s what’s in our movies, books, and shows.
This is a very, _very_ unoriginal point, so much so that I can't even remember from whom I'm ripping it off, but it feels like a part of the presentation of UFOs and aliens in modern culture is as a straightforward, science'd-up evolution of angels and supernatural beings. Which might partially explain why it gets bound with a desire for transcendence, and all that other jazz.
As much as I love that Posadist graphic, and find Posadism fun to think about, it seems obvious to me that a lot of UFOlogy and its associated ideologies is just sublimated religious feeling.
"“But the closest star is just four lightyears away!” Okay, but a lightyear is 5.88 trillion miles. Even if you could physically travel at the speed of light, which you really can’t because nothing with resting mass can, it would still take years to traverse these distances. And because of time dilation, in those relatively few years thousands and thousands of years would pass on the home planet of the voyagers. "
This is incorrect. If you built some kinda futuristic spaceship that could average half of lightspeed on a voyage between stars it would take 8 years to travel 4 lightyears from the perspective of observers on either of the two planets it was traveling between, and less from the perspective of passengers on the ship.
Not relevant to interstellar travel by humans in our lifetimes obviously.
“Observing the events of the past week or so, I find it increasingly hard to believe that there is intelligent life anywhere in the universe.” The spirit of Enrico Fermi is smiling.
This whole thing actually made me reflect on the X-Files, which I haven't thought about since the show was popular in the 90s. Apart from the obvious observation that now, many of the show's plotlines and overall anti-government stance has been taken up by the right, where as on the show they're depicted as kind of having an affable, slackerish vibe to them, it made me think about your comment on the Matrix, and the idea that the "truth is out there" condemns you to a life of total alienation from the world around you. The thing I remember most about that show was how the very idea that aliens were "out there" made the entire American landscape Mulder and Scully were constantly traversing a bleak purgatory without any love or comfort or cheer. It made the very idea of believing in aliens seem like a horrible and bitter curse, rather than a potential new form of spiritualism.
"Aliens are probably real, almost certainly have never visited us, and almost certainly never will" has been my take for a long time, fully agree with that bit. If people would like to go deeper on the "whys" of UFO stuff, and the reasons it has had such a persistent role in the culture, I would recommend the 2013 documentary Mirage Men. That documentary has some pretty compelling evidence that the original "flying saucer" sighting reports in the 40s and 50s were basically a means to explain away weird-looking experimental aircraft civilians were spotting in the early jet age.
The national security apparatus then realized that this could be used more broadly as a shiny object to distract questioning-the-government oriented people, and so encouraged the development of UFO conspiracies. I like it because it suits a bigger pattern - the use of more ridiculous conspiracies to distract from actual malfeasance, and then point to those ridiculous conspiracies to paint a broader swath of official-narrative-questioners with a "loonie" brush.
The UFO thing is quite well documented at this point, and not only by unreliable observers, by hundreds of military and civilian pilots across continents. It is a recurring phenomenon, and particularly surrounding nuclear weapons in both the USA and Russia.
Might it be extraterrestrial visitors of some sort? I dunno, but what is this stuff that has now been documented so many times over by so many observers?
I don't know where your top graphic comes from, but "third time as LARP" is actually pretty brilliant.
Thank-you for the basic point: the very vastness in time and space that all-but-guaranties that there is other intelligent life out there also makes extremely unlikely that any of it could show-up here within the life-time of our civilisation or, likely, race. It won't help much, because:
People say they can distinguish [science] fantasy from reality, but what on the Serengeti or for hundreds of thousands of years afterward selected for not believing our eyes and ears and minds?
Charles Stross once unleashed a storm of criticism when he used simple physics and economics to demonstrate that large-scale space-colonisation were unlikely as a viable proposition. The replies were all over the place, but notable were incorrect calculations contradicting his, and 'What about The Human Spirit!?' ironically coming from people thinking of themselves as 'hard science-fiction'* fans… but I could swear that the underlying objection was 'But I'ʼve seen it done hundreds or thousands of times! '. That is to say, they' ve been reading about it happening or its having happened in a future's past, and/or seen films and television where &c., for _decades_.
*That is, s.f. that ostensibly cares about real, physical, laws…but has accumulated various tropes having nothing to do with those or contradicting them: to my jaundiced eye it might be better called 'butch science-fiction'.
>> If there was something that could make quick work of these distances and the physical constraints of faster-than-light travel, it would not be our imagined alien in a flying saucer, it would be more like an angel or some other supernatural being. We have to remember that our imaginations are conditioned by our own cultural productions: we see flying saucers or spacecraft, because that’s what’s in our movies, books, and shows.
This is a very, _very_ unoriginal point, so much so that I can't even remember from whom I'm ripping it off, but it feels like a part of the presentation of UFOs and aliens in modern culture is as a straightforward, science'd-up evolution of angels and supernatural beings. Which might partially explain why it gets bound with a desire for transcendence, and all that other jazz.
As much as I love that Posadist graphic, and find Posadism fun to think about, it seems obvious to me that a lot of UFOlogy and its associated ideologies is just sublimated religious feeling.
"“But the closest star is just four lightyears away!” Okay, but a lightyear is 5.88 trillion miles. Even if you could physically travel at the speed of light, which you really can’t because nothing with resting mass can, it would still take years to traverse these distances. And because of time dilation, in those relatively few years thousands and thousands of years would pass on the home planet of the voyagers. "
This is incorrect. If you built some kinda futuristic spaceship that could average half of lightspeed on a voyage between stars it would take 8 years to travel 4 lightyears from the perspective of observers on either of the two planets it was traveling between, and less from the perspective of passengers on the ship.
Not relevant to interstellar travel by humans in our lifetimes obviously.
“Observing the events of the past week or so, I find it increasingly hard to believe that there is intelligent life anywhere in the universe.” The spirit of Enrico Fermi is smiling.
And speaking of believing, any take on the Seymour Hersh article?
This whole thing actually made me reflect on the X-Files, which I haven't thought about since the show was popular in the 90s. Apart from the obvious observation that now, many of the show's plotlines and overall anti-government stance has been taken up by the right, where as on the show they're depicted as kind of having an affable, slackerish vibe to them, it made me think about your comment on the Matrix, and the idea that the "truth is out there" condemns you to a life of total alienation from the world around you. The thing I remember most about that show was how the very idea that aliens were "out there" made the entire American landscape Mulder and Scully were constantly traversing a bleak purgatory without any love or comfort or cheer. It made the very idea of believing in aliens seem like a horrible and bitter curse, rather than a potential new form of spiritualism.
What is to be made of the fact that this predisposition to UFO sightings/belief is seemingly concentrated in these united states?
"Aliens are probably real, almost certainly have never visited us, and almost certainly never will" has been my take for a long time, fully agree with that bit. If people would like to go deeper on the "whys" of UFO stuff, and the reasons it has had such a persistent role in the culture, I would recommend the 2013 documentary Mirage Men. That documentary has some pretty compelling evidence that the original "flying saucer" sighting reports in the 40s and 50s were basically a means to explain away weird-looking experimental aircraft civilians were spotting in the early jet age.
The national security apparatus then realized that this could be used more broadly as a shiny object to distract questioning-the-government oriented people, and so encouraged the development of UFO conspiracies. I like it because it suits a bigger pattern - the use of more ridiculous conspiracies to distract from actual malfeasance, and then point to those ridiculous conspiracies to paint a broader swath of official-narrative-questioners with a "loonie" brush.
I’m agnostic on the aliens.
The UFO thing is quite well documented at this point, and not only by unreliable observers, by hundreds of military and civilian pilots across continents. It is a recurring phenomenon, and particularly surrounding nuclear weapons in both the USA and Russia.
Might it be extraterrestrial visitors of some sort? I dunno, but what is this stuff that has now been documented so many times over by so many observers?
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/what-the-pentagon-report-says-about-ufos
Truly outstanding movie premise. Elements of Ace in the Hole in it. Perfect vehicle for Gene Wilder if he were still available.